Background The risk of poor outcomes in preterm infants is primarily determined by birthweight (BW) and gestational age (GA). It is not known whether BW is a better outcome predictor than GA.
Objective To test whether BW is better than GA (measured in days, rather than completed weeks) for prediction of neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) and death.
Design/methods Extremely preterm infants born at the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (NICHD) Neonatal Research Network centres between 1998 and 2009 were studied. For the unadjusted analysis, the associations of GA (in days based on best obstetrical estimate) and BW (in grams) with NDI or death were compared using area under the curve (AUC). Adjusted analyses were performed using birth year, sex, race, antenatal steroids, singleton birth, pre-eclampsia, Apgar score at 5 min and small for GA as covariates.
Results 10 652 preterm infants (89%) had outcome data at 18–22 months’ corrected age. The mean BW was 678 g (SD: 155) and the mean GA was 173 days (SD: 10) or 245/7 weeks (SD: 13/7). The AUC for NDI or death was 80% with BW and 79% with GA (p=0.82). Unadjusted and adjusted analyses did not differ. NDI or death rates decreased with increasing GA through 26 weeks (estimated risk reduction with each additional day of gestation: 2.2%).
Conclusion Both BW in grams and GA in days are good predictors of NDI and death in a preterm population selected on the basis of reliable GA.
Trial registration number NCT00009633.
- outcome prediction
- risk stratification
- extremely-low-birth-weight infants
- extremely-low-gestational-age newborns
- premature infants
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